Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

Question

This is a "market for markets".

Artemis III is the only crewed Moon landing scheduled for before 2028, but there have been fears that if Starship is delayed the mission may not fly.

The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023)(https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028, followed by Starship reaches space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon by 2028 and Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028 are most likely. See the market for live updates (40 traders, as of Apr 6, 2026).