One Nation gets at least 5 seats in the South Australian election?

Question

Results YES iff One Nation is elected to 5 seats or more in South Australia's 2026 election according to the ABC:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/results

Results are currently being counted, will give it a few days to resolve. If ABC goes down, resolution source is Australian Electoral Commission or Wikipedia.

edit: lower house only

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (23 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).