How many days later will Edith publish his next post on akrasia on Lesswrong? (Experimental market structure)

Question

So Edith's a new user, and he recently made his first post, named Stop Defeating Akrasia (1/4)!

When will he publish his next post?

The reference percentage is the number of days later (24 hour blocks later) his next post is published on, as a percentage. For example, if he publishes his next post 3 days after, then it is 3%. If he publishes his next post 3 days and 23 hours after, then it is still 3%.

Here's the twist: If this market is trading below the reference percentage (as seen on the UI), then I will resolve this market YES, while if this market is trading above the reference percentage, I will resolve this market NO. If it is trading exactly at the reference percentage, I will resolve this market as the reference percentage.

If you want to trade on a more normal market, see this:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/bohaska/how-many-days-later-will-ediths-nex)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Feb 12, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.