Will I think jury nullification occured in the Luigi Mangione case?

Question

I've heard some people joke/claim that jury nullification may occur in the case of the uhc ceo shooter. It seems very unlikely to me but I am curious what the odds are.

This market will resolve NO if:

Evidence is brought up that I think could convince a juror that Luigi Mangione was not the shooter

The prosecution does a bad job of proving that Luigi Mangione is the shooter

Evidence is brought up that I think could convince a juror that the shooting was legally justified (eg. self defense)

Evidence is brought up that Luigi Mangione was legally insane at the time of the crime

The murder charges are dropped on a technicality, so they can focus on convicting him of a different crime, or for any other reason other than so they can charge him somewhere else

Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder, terrorism, assassination, manslaughter, or any other crime which implies he killed Brian Thompson.

A plea deal is taken

Luigi dies before a jury reaches a verdict

This market will resolve YES if:

A jury says that Luigi Mangione is innocent of all homicide charges involving the death of Brian Thompson and to my best guess anyone who saw the evidence presented in the trial would know that Luigi Mangione was not innocent of those charges. It does not matter if Luigi Mangione is convicted of non-homicide crimes or if he is convicted of homicide of someone other than Brian Thompson

If I don't feel like looking into the evidence myself I will resolve based on whether any lawyers or newspapers are calling it jury nullification or hold a poll on manifold.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (23 traders, as of Aug 13, 2026).