Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse)

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at the official close of the market (intended to be 24 hours after its creation), the number of unique user accounts holding a non-zero position in YES is strictly greater than the number of unique user accounts holding a non-zero position in NO.

Otherwise, if the number of NO holders is greater than or equal to the number of YES holders, this market will resolve to NO.

Source of truth: The "Holders" tab and contract data of this specific Manifold market page at the time of resolution.

Ties: If the number of unique holders for both YES and NO is exactly equal at close, the market will resolve to NO (as YES did not have more holders).

Background

This is a meta-market experimenting with short-term trading dynamics ("quick fuse"). On Manifold, "holders" refers to the number of unique user accounts that currently hold a non-zero balance of shares for a given outcome. Users who sell their entire position before the market closes will not count toward the final holder tally.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Sep 8, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.