Will Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday?

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the closing price of the 1-hour Bitcoin (BTC-USD) candle covering August 7, 2026, from 23:00 to 00:00 UTC (August 8 midnight) on Yahoo Finance is higher than $64,002.98.

This market resolves to NO if the candle’s closing price is lower than or equal to $64,002.98.

Source of Truth

The primary source of truth is the hourly candlestick data for BTC-USD on Yahoo Finance.

Reference Price

The reference price is $64,002.98, representing the Bitcoin price at the time this market was created.

Fallback Rule

If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, contains erroneous data, or fails to report the specified candle within 24 hours after the candle closes, the closing price for the corresponding hour on TradingView will be used instead. The Coinbase BTC-USD feed will be preferred, with the Binance BTC-USDT feed used if the Coinbase feed is unavailable.

Background

In early August 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the $63,000 to $64,000 range after recovering from previous pullbacks. Market sentiment is being shaped by macroeconomic indicators, including expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

August has historically been one of Bitcoin’s weaker months, with a reported median return of approximately −7.87% over the past 15 years. This market measures whether Bitcoin rises above its price at the time of market creation by the end of August 7, 2026.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Aug 8, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.