Will Luna 26 be launched in 2027 ?

Question

This market was cretead on August 20, 2023. On that date on the wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_26 there was a text:

its launch is planned for 2027

This market will be resolved YES if the mission with the name "Luna 26" will be launched in year 2027 (Moscow time). If in the year 2027 no mission with such name is launched then this market will be resolved as NO.

Some clarifications:

If the mission happens earlier 2027 (for example in 2025), this market will be resolved as NO (There is a separate market https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-luna-26-be-launched-in-2027-or — "Will Luna 26 be launched in 2027 or earlier?" )

The missin is does not have to finish in 2027. This market will be resolved as YES if the launch happens on December 31 and the landing on the moon is sheduled for 2028, only the lauch date matter

The launch does not have to be a success. If the rocket blows during the launch, but this launch happens in the year 2027 this will be resolved as YES

The name of mission must have letters "Luna" and number 26. The name does not have to be exacly "Luna 26", it can be named "Luna-26", "Luna #26", "Lunar mission 26" or something like that. But if there is no "Luna" and 26 in the name then this does not count. ("Luna 126" will not count, as the number 126 != 26)

If there are several missions that have letters "Luna" and number 26 any of them can be launched in 2027 for this market to be resolved as YES (For example "Luna 26A" is launched in 2025, "Luna 26B" is 2026, "Luna 26C" is 2027, this market will be resolved as YES

Author betting rules:

The author of the market can bet on this market.

Resolving rules:

This market will be resolved as NO in early 2028 if no such mission happens in 2027.

This market will be resolved as YES in 2027 shortly after this mission is launched.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (7 traders, as of Aug 23, 2025).