There have been disputed reports of the Tesla board seeking to replace Elon Musk, and of Elon no longer wanting to be CEO of Tesla. Conditional on Elon Musk remaining CEO of Tesla continually until January 16, 2026, what will the closing price of TSLA be on January 16, 2026? Price will determined by the end of regular trading closing price according to their primary listing exchange (Nasdaq).

This market explores the conditional nature of the TSLA stock price in concert with three other markets:

First, will Elon Musk remain CEO through January 16, 2026?

Next, what will the stock price be if he remains (this market)?

And finally, what will the stock price be if he leaves or is otherwise removed?

There have been disputed reports of the Tesla board seeking to replace Elon Musk, and of Elon no longer wanting to be CEO of Tesla. Will Elon Musk remain the CEO of Tesla continuously through the market close on January 16, 2026?

First, will Elon Musk remain CEO through January 16, 2026 (this market)?

Next, what will the stock price be if he remains?

What will the stock price be if he leaves or is otherwise removed?

The weighted sum of these probabilities should match the overall stock price, regardless of whether Elon Musk remains CEO or not: