Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026?

Question

Question will resolve YES if Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026 (going by Eastern US time).

Will resolve NO if Saudi Arabia and Israel have not established official diplomatic relations by the end of 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (30 traders, as of Nov 6, 2026).