At what market cap will Carta exit for?

Question

This market resolves to the market cap of Carta, Inc. (carta.com) at the end of the first day of public trading.

Latest valuation: $8.5 billion (early 2022)

If Carta is acquired, the market resolves to the publicly reported acquisition price or merger value at the day the merger/acquisition is announced, including both cash and stock.

If Carta has not had an exit by the end of the 2020s or shuts down, this market resolves to 0-$200M.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, $5B-$8.5B, followed by $1B-$5B and $8.5B-$12B are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).