Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Question

Resolves YES if the US trade deficit (seasonally adjusted) for 2025 is less than the US trade deficit for 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.

The data source for this question will be the US Census's monthly report on international trade, seen here: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf. Specifically, we will take the negation of the total trade balance from Part A, Exhibit 1.

See here for the schedule of their releases: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/schedule.html

The two values will be compared when the trade deficit for 2025 is first released.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Feb 22, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.