There are two Canada election debates currently planned, a French debate on April 16th, 8:00 PM EST and an English debate on April 17th, 7:00 PM EST.

 This market resolves based on the change of the displayed price of Mark Carney between April 15th, Noon EST and April 18th, Noon EST on the Polymarket 

https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada/will-pierre-poilievre-be-the-next-canadian-prime-minister?tid=1743818934282

If his probability increases by 2% or more, resolves Yes.

If his probability decreases by 2% or more, resolves No.

If his probability change is within +-1%, resolves 50/50.

Weird spikes right on the times for checking the relative price change may be ignored if a majority of Manifold users vote to do so on a poll.