Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)

Question

Galen Druke, Nate Silver, and Clare Malone did a live 2028 Republican Primary Draft in March 2026. This will resolve to the winner according to their own rules. If a winner is announced, I will use that; otherwise I'll do my best to score it myself. I will not trade on this market.

The scoring rules:

25 points - becomes nominee at convention

5 points - officially run

5 points - make it to first state

3 points per state/territory/Democrats Abroad won

2 bonus points after Super Tuesday (I think this is per state won after Super Tuesday)

1 bonus point for winning a swing state

10 points for picking last (Clare)

5 points for picking second (Nate)

The picks:

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Clare Malone, followed by Galen Druke and Nate Silver are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Mar 12, 2026).