When will AI be better than humans at AI research? (Self-Improving AI)

Question

When will there be an AI which is better at doing AI research than the average human AI researcher not using AI?

The AI must be capable of doing everything that a current AI researcher does, including coming up with new research ideas, brainstorming with coworkers, writing code, debugging, doing code reviews, communicating results, and writing papers.

If this is constrained to a specific domain of AI research such as LLM development or interpretability that still counts.

This question is meant to be another version of "When will we get text AGI / transformative AI"

All answers which are true resolve Yes.

A question which is conditional on this one:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/what-will-be-the-median-pdoom-of-ai-fed3fdd12c85)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before 2100, followed by Before 2070 and Before 2050 are most likely. See the market for live updates (45 traders, as of Oct 6, 2026).