Will the Next-gen Xbox allow the installation of any Windows app?

Question

PLEASE READ THE RESOLUTION CRITERIA BELOW.

This resolves positively if:

A non-portable console, PC or PC-console hybrid with an SoC, CPU or GPU co-designed by Microsoft for the use of the next-gen Xbox, as defined in this question, launches and allows the installation of any Windows app, just like a regular PC.

The machine doesn't have to be manufactured by Microsoft, and doesn't have to be called an Xbox, but it must play all next-gen Xbox games. It is sufficient that only one machine that fulfills those criteria exists.

For a positive resolution, the launch must happen before 2030. It resolves negatively if no such machine launches before 2030 or a year after the first version of the next-gen Xbox launches, whichever comes first. If no next-gen Xbox launches before 2030, it resolves as N/A.

I will not bet in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (2 traders, as of Mar 16, 2026).