Will the country ranked #1 in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of state?

Question

Background

The Economist annually publishes the ‘Democracy Index’, which purports to measure democracy around the world.

No country that directly elects its head of state has ever ranked #1 in the Democracy Index. In 2024, the highest-ranking country to have a directly elected head of state was Iceland at #4.

Resolution procedure

This market will resolve YES if a country that directly elects its head of state receives the highest score in the 2025 edition of The Economist’s Democracy Index.

This market will resolve NO if a country that does not directly elect its head of state receives the highest score in the 2025 edition of The Economist’s Democracy Index.

In the event that two or more countries receive the equal highest score, a percentage resolution may be applied as appropriate.

Close date

This market is intended to close before the 2025 edition of The Economist’s Democracy Index is published. The close date is subject to change.

Further information

I permit Manifold's moderators to resolve this market in a manner consistent with the resolution procedure once the relevant information becomes available.

I will not bet in this market.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Apr 8, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.