Will Russia's net territorial gain in January 2026 exceed 400km²?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to more than 400.00 square kilometres in January 2026, according to the resolution sources.

This market will resolve NO if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not amount to more than 400.00 square kilometres in January 2026, according to the resolution sources.

Resolution sources

The resolution of this market will be based on the median estimate provided by the following seven sources:

Black Bird Group

ISW

AMK Mapping

Divgen

LostArmour

Suriyakmaps (via HeyHeyHayden)

Creamy caprice

Should one, two or three of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within seven days of the market closing, the median of the available estimates will be used.

Should four or more of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within seven days of the market closing, the market will be voided.

Clarifications

This market concerns de facto territorial changes.

The market may resolve early if the outcome is mathematically certain after four or more sources have reported.

The definition of 'median', for the purpose of this market, aligns with the definition provided by Dictionary.com:

the middle number in a given sequence of numbers, taken as the average of the two middle numbers when the sequence has an even number of numbers

I will not trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Feb 4, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.