Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in June 2026.

This market will resolve NO if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in June 2026.

Resolution sources

The resolution sources are:

Black Bird Group

AMK Mapping

Divgen

Close date

This market is set to close at 23:59 UTC on 7 July 2026, although it may resolve sooner.

Clarifications

This market will be voided if two or more resolution sources fail to provide an estimate before the close date.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (22 traders, as of Jun 21, 2026).