Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see 

https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager

Let's say that they did agree under those original conditions. Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.

This resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.

This resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.

Bet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)

If any one of those conditions is not met,

if any of those statements are untrue on February 14th 2029, I lose the bet. If all of those statements remain true on February 14th 2029, I win the bet.

because that's the only way to get anybody to take skepticism seriously anymore