Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?

Question

Elon Musk is talking big: https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1815493761486708993. Says that Grok 3 will come out in December and 'should be' the most powerful AI in the world.

Resolves to YES if Grok 3 is, at the time of its release, plausibly the most powerful AI in the world according to my best judgment. Has to be at least as strong as all models publicly available at the time.

Resolves to NO if it is not the most powerful.

(Resolves NO if no such model is released by 7/23/25, to ensure this doesn't go on forever.)

As of 7/23/2024 Claude Sonnet 3.5 is IMO most powerful AI, but GPT-4o would also resolve to YES based on its position at #1 on Arena and other ways in which some people prefer it. Gemini 1.5 Pro or Advanced would not qualify, but would have counted prior to Sonnet 3.5 and GPT-4o.

(I will not take clarifying questions on my criteria here, it will be my subjective take on 'is this plausibly the best LLM I can access right now.')

Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Reasoning models are a different class of AI and do not count for the purposes of resolving this market. (AI summary of creator comment)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Feb 26, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.