Will this 1916 Babe Ruth Rookie Card sell for $500,000 at its upcoming Bonhams auction? (pic included)

Question

The Bonhams auction house is currently holding an auction for the following rare baseball card:

A BABE RUTH M101-4 1916 ROOKIE CARD #151 PSA EX 5, WITH GIMBELS INK STAMP ON THE VERSO [link]

Bonhams gave it an estimated value of US$250,000 - US$500,000. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Bonhams website is >$500,000.

Resolution details:

Example from a past auction: the "THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS ANNOUNCES AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE" document is listed as "Sold for US$127,500 inc. premium". This is the equivalent number I will use.

Thus, note that the final listed sale price typically lists the additional buyer's premium.

If the painting is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell, this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES with a listed sale price during this auction of >$500,000.

Card details:

[image]Encapsulated by PSA and graded 5 (83747279).

In Chicago, baseball card publisher Felix Mendelsohn produced what we now call the M101-4 set, a collection of 200 baseball cards featuring the top players of the day, with the cards featuring black and white photography instead of the color lithography formerly in use.

In April of 1916 Gimbels Department Store launched a promotional campaign advertising a free giveaway of 20 baseball cards to kids who came in person to the Boy's Clothing Section (Sportscollectordaily.com, March 21, 2015).

Babe Ruth still holds the Major League record for slugging percentage, with 0.69.

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Apr 13, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.