Will Taylor Swift's new album (Tortured Poet Department) have an average song length 3:30? (Midnights was 3:23)

Question

Taylor Swift's eleventh studio album (Tortured Poets Department) is scheduled to release on April 19th. This market resolves YES if its average song length is longer than 3 minutes and 30 seconds.

I will resolve this based on the Standard Edition of the album (or the closest equivalent I can find), i.e. excluding bonus tracks [1].

Average (mean) = total runtime / # of tracks.

Here are some examples from her previous albums, to clarify how I plan to calculate this (feel free to ask if you think there's anything off):

Midnights: her previous album has 15 tracks, and a total runtime (standard edition, excluding bonus tracks) of 44:02, implying an average song length of 3:23.

Lover: 18 songs, 61:48 runtime, average length of 3:26.

Reputation: 15 songs, 55:38, average of 3:43.

1989: 13 songs, 48:41, average of 3:45.

In the case of a tie (e.g. 16 listed tracks, 56:00 runtime, for exactly 3:30 average) this would resolve NO (strictly greater, although when taking the average I won't round).

I don't expect there will be any real ambiguity about song lengths—I'll resolve once they're officially posted (likely just using Wikipedia, but I can look around for the original source).

If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask.

[1]. I assume this will be fairly straightforward to define (on Wikipedia her previous albums have a "standard edition" listed). For example, currently Wikipedia lists 16 tracks (split between Sides A/B/C/D) and a 17th track ("The Manuscript") that's exclusive to the physical album. It seems safe to assume that the 16 tracks constitute a standard edition and the 17th is "bonus". And I plan to similarly exclude other "bonus" tracks that aren't on every standard album. Still, note when placing your bets that it's possible she will follow an unusual structure, and I'll be forced to make a subjective judgment call about what to consider a "bonus track". (TLDR: it's very likely that it'll just be the 16 tracks currently listed, but that could change if new information comes out).

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Apr 19, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.