Will Florence Pugh (Princess Irulan) have 50% more screen time in Dune: Part Two than Zendaya in Dune (2021)? (9:33)

Question

Note: this is an exact duplicate of this market, except setting a higher bar—at least >50% more screen time requires >9:33, i.e. 6:22 * 1.5.

Source: I will resolve this market based on whatever is stated by Matthew Stewart, who regularly posts screen time calculations on his Twitter.

For reference, here is his post for Dune (2021): https://twitter.com/MatthewAStewart/status/1457105533824077826

He calculates that Zendaya had 6 minutes & 22 seconds of screen time in Dune: Part One. Thus, this market resolves YES if the screen time he calculates for Florence Pugh in Dune: Part Two is 9:34 (6:22 * 1.5) or higher, and it resolves NO if 9:33 or lower. (Further resolution details below).

For reference, here are the screen times he calculated for other minor/supporting roles:

Josh Brolin - 11:31 (7.41%)

Sharon Duncan-Brewster - 9:47 (6.29%)

Jason Momoa - 9:29 (6.10%)

Javier Bardem - 6:07 (3.94%)

Stephen McKinley Henderson - 5:52 (3.77%)

Charlotte Rampling - 5:25 (3.49%)

Stellan Skarsgård - 5:23 (3.46%)

Dave Bautista - 2:08 (1.37%)

Resolution edge cases (I doubt this will come up):

If Matthew Stewart has not posted any screen time data within 3 months of the streaming release of Dune: Part Two, I will attempt to substitute with whatever reputable-looking source I can find (still comparing to the 6:22 benchmark). If I can't find a reputable-seeming replacement source, I will have to resolve this N/A (I won't attempt to calculate it myself).

He seems to be quite consistent, so I don't think that will prove necessary.

If he posts the screen time data for Dune: Part Two, and fairly clear that Florence Pugh is omitted because her screen time is so far below 9:33 (e.g. <30s), then I can still resolve this NO. If he posts screen time data but it only covers e.g. the top few characters (so it isn't sufficient to determine if Florence Pugh is >9:33), then I will again look for a substitute source.

If any scenarios are unclear, please ask.

Related market (lower bar—any increase, not requiring >50%):

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-florence-pugh-princess-irulan?r=WmlkZGxldHdpeA)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on May 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.