"Oppenheimer" releases in Japan on March 29th. Will it outgross "Dune: Part Two" after two months?

Question

[Before betting, please read the description in full—international box office reporting can be unreliable, and I will resolve based on the linked source, whether or not other sources agree.]

Due to its sensitive subject matter, "Oppenheimer" (2023) did not initially release in Japan. However, after extensive discussion, Universal partnered with local distributor Bitters End and the film is scheduled for a March 29th theatrical release.

Resolution source:

I will use cumulative Japan gross listed on BoxOfficeMojo "Oppenheimer" and "Dune: Part Two".

For example, at the time of question creation (March 27th), Japan's "Gross" column for "Dune: Part Two" is $3,328,920 (but the movie is still in theaters, so this will continue to grow).

This market resolves YES if the cumulative gross listed for "Oppenheimer" on May 29th is greater than the cumulative gross listed for "Dune: Part Two".

Details:

I will use the gross listed by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.

The reporting of international box office gross is not always consistent, and this may not exactly match what's reported by other sources.

I will resolve based on the figures I see on May 29th for both films (regardless of delayed reporting).

I may resolve this market early if the result is extremely clear (i.e. one film is earning trivial grosses and is very far behind the other).

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on May 15, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.