. Cosmo has agreed to send me M$1010. He has sent me a manalink for M$1, which I collected, and another manalink M$1009, which I did not.

 argument that manalinks are like cheques, and a cheque is considered "paid" when it is delivered to the recipient, regardless of whether the recipient has cashed it. Therefore Cosmo has paid me M$1010.

 markets, only cashed manalinks count. Since my market is based on hers, this should also apply to my market. Therefore Cosmo has paid me M$1.

This market resolves to the fraction of people who voted M$1010 in the poll.