Is your phone listening to everything you say and using this to target ads?

Question

Many people seem to believe that their phone is always listening and serving them targeted ads related to things they've said. Will convincing evidence come to light that this was actually happening on either iOS or Android?

This would have to be on either an OS level, or on enough common apps (particularly if they could record when not in the foreground) to substantially justify this belief. State surveillance, targeted exploits, or a couple of rogue known-to-be-shady apps (eg TikTok) would not resolve YES.

Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

Timing of listening behavior: The market will resolve to YES if it is demonstrated that phones have been listening continuously at any time up to the resolution date. Implementations occurring after the market has been opened will not satisfy the YES resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (88 traders, as of Jan 29, 2026).