If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

Question

Suppose these three conditions are met:

In a video, Rational Animations invites viewers to read a LessWrong article or sequence. It's an explicit invitation made in the narration of the video rather than e.g. only as in-video text.

The article/sequence is linked in three places: at the end of the video (e.g. in place or near the Patreon link), at the top of the video description, and in the pinned comment.

The video accrues 1 million views.

How many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

The number of new users can be measured in these ways:

-> Links tracking how many new users join.

-> LessWrong stats that make the LessWrong moderators confident enough in an approximate number that they believe this market can be resolved.

Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.5474016296098256 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Aug 15, 2026).