Are any insects sentient?

Question

Resolves YES if on January 1, 2100, experts agree that at least one insect existing on April 7, 2023, is sentient. Resolves NO if experts agree that no insects existing on April 7, 2023, are sentient. Resolves N/A if there's no expert consensus or there’s significant disagreement about the relevant experts and their conclusions. This could happen either because of normal uncertainty reasons or because the world looks very different in such a way that causes there to be no consensus (e.g. because everyone is dead).

If sentience turns out to be a confused concept, the market resolves in favor of whatever the expert consensus considers accurate in the spirit of the question. If the expert consensus is that there's really no reasonable answer because the question is too confused, the market resolves N/A.

For this market, sentience refers to the capacity to have subjective experiences with positive or negative valenced states, akin to pleasure or pain. If an insect has subjective experiences but no positive or negative valence attached to them, it is considered conscious but not sentient.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 67% chance (77 traders, as of Mar 21, 2026).