Will 10 people Buy the Lucerne Castle?

Question

Let's split the cost of the $3.3m castle. Now that CEA unloaded Wytham Abbey, it's time to take castle acquisition into our own hands: https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/3700-Country-Club-Dr-Lucerne-CA/32234969/

30% down payment = ~$1m, so looking for 10 people to commit $100k each! Resolves according to wepledge.to/buy-the-lucerne-castle

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (9 traders, as of Jun 30, 2025).