Will Daniel Kelly Outperform Tim Michels on Tuesday?

Question

Tim Michels (R) lost the 2022 Wisconsin governors race by 3.4% (source: Wikipedia) in November 2022.

Will Daniel Kelly (R / NP) do better this Tuesday?

I may resolve this market if the race is called and most major news sites show 99% reporting and +/- 2% does not effect the resolution, otherwise I will wait until Thursday to calculate the value for comparison, I will delay this if most sources show <95% reporting. Initially I will use the percentage values given by Wikipedia but if they are the same I will manually calculate the unrounded percentages.

Note: This criteria will likely result in the value used for resolution being different from the final tally and in some cases incorrect but this is to ensure a predictable timeline for payouts provided there isn't some anomaly.

CNN, DDHQ, FOX NEWS, MSNBC, and NYT will be the sources for determining % reporting. Wikipedia will be used for vote counts and margin. I may remove or replace sources that end up being unavailable for this election.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Apr 5, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.