Edit: I changed phrasing slightly after bets were placed, to emphasize that resolution will be YES even if one single government would be chosen via sortition. If this is opposite to the original understanding of participants, I will refund.

This market will resolve as YES if before 2060, any general elections for government (e.g. parliamentary or presidential) within the European Union or United States are replaced by sortition. It does not matter in which precise form sortition is introduced, as long as:

If no example of such a change of process can be demonstrated within the European Union or United States, the market resolves NO.

Amidst growing concerns about contemporary liberal democracies, sortition has repeatedly been offered as a way to resolve polarisation and factionalism among representatives, while simultaneously decreasing the gap between government and governed. As democracies attempt to adapt to the 21st century, it is likely some will experiment with new forms of choosing their officials.

https://www.amazon.com/Against-Elections-David-Van-Reybrouck/dp/1847924220

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/opinion/elections-democracy.html