Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

Question

At the time of market creation, the community prediction on Metaculus for the "Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known" is Oct 18, 2025: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

[image]The market will resolve YES if, in retrospect by the end of 2025, this has indeed been achieved (and is agreed upon by industry experts); the market will resolve NO if not.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.