Will Meta's stock rise in the month after Llama 3 is released?

Question

Released: I will consider a release to be a formal unveiling of capabilities. Rumors/leaks don't count. It will need to meet the following conditions

I'll expect a presentation with Mark or Yann, or at the very least a paper talking about all the benchmarks it crushes.

Access given to the public, or at least journalists/privileged outsiders. We need somebody who doesn't work at Meta able to use the model and give their honest opinion to the public.

Stock price: If Llama 3 is released during the trading day, I will use the closing price of the previous full day of trading.

If it drops at 3:00 on a Wednesday (when the market is open), I'll use the closing price from the day before (Tuesday).

If it drops at 7:00 on a Wednesday (after the market is closed), I'll use the closing price from that same day.

Month: I'll resolve this at the end of the trading day one calendar month after the model is released, or after the final trading day after a calendar month.

If it's released on Wednesday, May 1, I will close this market at the end of the trading day on Monday, April 1st.

If it releases on Saturday, May 4, I will close this market at the end of the trading day on Thursday April 4.

If it releases on Wednesday, May 6, it will close on Friday, April 5 (since there's no point waiting around for Saturday).

Stock price:

I will compare Meta's starting stock price with the closing stock price. If the stock price is higher, this market resolves as yes. If the stock price is lower, this market resolves as no.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on May 22, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.