Is Nvidia a bubble? (Fixed version)

Question

This is a duplicate of a previous market, albeit with adjusted criteria. While I earlier defined a bubble popping as a 30% decline in value or more, those more knowledgeable on the subject convinced me this number was too low. Accordingly, I am moving that number up to a 60% drop in value.

As such, this market resolves Yes if NVDA at any point in the next five years drops below 40% of its current valuation. As of market close on March 7th 2024, its price was sitting at $926.69 with 2.5 billion shares outstanding, giving me a market cap of roughly 2.3 trillion. For rounding purposes, I'll define a 60% drop as its market cap dropping below 927 million dollars. If it trades below this level before 3/8/29 this market resolves Yes. Stock splits will not affect this.

Previous market

(https://manifold.markets/embed/VerySeriousPoster/is-nvidia-a-bubble)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (24 traders, as of Jan 4, 2026).