In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Question

Previously titled "Is Nvidia a Bubble?"

This market resolves Yes if NVDA at any point in the next five years drops below 70% of its current valuation. As of posting (before the market opens on 3/8/24) its price is sitting at $926.69. For rounding purposes, I'll define below 70% as below $650. If it trades below this level before 3/8/29 this market resolves Yes.

Stock splits will not affect this. In the case that NVDA splits its price I will adjust the market criteria to reflect the price that represents the 70% valuation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (96 traders, as of Mar 10, 2026).