Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus?

Question

Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus. However, Oliver Habryka and Gwern raised concerns about data contamination. If a reliable (according to me) test is performed, will FiveThirtyNine be found to outperform Metaculus?

If all concerns with the current test will be convincingly debunked, the market will resolve YES. If a new test will involve Metaculus forecasts that contain similar AI in the aggregate, it will not be sufficient for a NO resolution. If no such test is performed by closing date, it will resolve MKT. Since what counts as a "reliable test" is a subjective judgment call, I will not trade on this market. I also welcome suggestions for better resolution criteria.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-substantive-issues-wi?r=TmF0aGFucG1Zb3VuZw)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (23 traders, as of May 4, 2026).