Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2027 (Dec 2027 price level compared to Dec 2026). The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.

Goes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal.

I will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation.

I will bet in this market. If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 54% chance (24 traders, as of Oct 3, 2026).