Disclaimer: this is a new market, and I plan to evolve the description to better reflect the concept I’m trying to capture and reduce potential ambiguity in the resolution criteria, at least for the first few months.

The end of this market is January 20, 2029 regardless of when Trump actually leaves office. 

This market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve formally changes its 2% inflation target before January 20, 2029. It would resolve immediately; the question is “will it change” not what it will be at the end.

Resolution will be determined by official statements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, available at 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcstatement.htm

Any material modification to the stated inflation target—whether higher, lower, or to a range—constitutes a change.

The market resolves NO if the Fed maintains the 2% target through the end of Trump's term, even if the Fed adjusts its framework or approach to achieving that target.

I’ll add more clarifications as needed. Please ask questions or make suggestions to further reduce ambiguity. 

I plan to bet in this market. I will defer to mods or some fair resolution mechanism if the resolution becomes controversial. 

The Federal Reserve currently seeks to achieve inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The 2025 review took as given the FOMC's previously articulated longer-run inflation goal of 2 percent. This target has been in place since 2012 and was reaffirmed in the Fed's most recent framework review in August 2025.

The committee continues to expect inflation to hold above its 2% target until 2028. Trump has signaled he will litmus test his choice for Fed chair, using a preference for lower rates as a barometer, rather than someone committed to the Fed's dual mandate of stable prices and full employment.

The Fed's 2% target is a long-standing institutional commitment that has survived multiple economic crises and policy reviews. While Trump's incoming Fed chair may prioritize rate cuts, changing the inflation target itself would be a dramatic departure from decades of central banking practice and would require formal FOMC approval. The distinction between adjusting policy tools (interest rates, asset purchases) and changing the target itself is crucial—the former is routine, the latter would be extraordinary.