Will Tumbles punch someone before Joe Biden dies?

Question

The punch only counts if at least one of the following is true:
1. The punch was thrown with maximum Tumbles force and connects with someone's head or torso
2. The punch was thrown with true violent intent to harm someone
3. The punch immediately instigates a real physical fight
4. The punch gets Tumbles arrested
5. The punch is against someone well known and gets significant attention on social media

I don't believe I've ever done anything in my life before that would satisfy this criteria. It's possible I punched someone with true violent intent when I was a little kid, hard to say. In any case, it must occur after the creation of this market to count.

[image]Related:
@/Bob/when-will-joe-biden-die

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (23 traders, as of Jan 29, 2026).