Will Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Starmer out before July?"

Question

Resolves YES if the following markets both resolve the same way:

Starmer out by...? (June 30)

[link preview](https://manifold.markets/embed/Tumbles/keir-starmer-out-before-july-tumble)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 76% chance (4 traders, as of Jun 21, 2026).