Will Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"

Question

Resolves YES if the following markets both resolve the same way:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

[link preview](https://manifold.markets/embed/Tumbles/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-end-of-2Ny29lyU6Q)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 84% chance (10 traders, as of Jun 22, 2026).