Which public figures will outlive @Orangey?

Question

I believe @Orangey is 16-18 years old, but I don't have exact records. My ex and I adopted him five years ago, he has been our shared child of divorce the last couple years. He was surrendered to the vet to be put down by his previous family because of behaviour issues, but he ended up being a clinic cat for several months before making his way to us. Turns out he is a wonderful cat, and his previous behaviour issues were likely related to being in a house full of cats (he doesn't get along with other cats).

He is on daily anti-nausea medication, he pukes and has extremely poor appetite without it. These issues still flair up every couple weeks for a few days. I believe the nausea comes from a long term type of kidney disease, but that's mostly a guess, his kidney function is currently pretty good. The nausea has been a slowly increasing issue for a few years.

He's had two bladder infections within the last twelve months (the second was caught and treated EXTREMELY early since I now know what signs to watch for). He has a slight heart murmur. His teeth are pretty good, and he's still quite spry.

I let him play outside whenever he wants to, though he hasn't gone out almost at all since it got cold where I live. He mostly just putzes about and eats grass when he's outside. I live in the middle of a small city but my street isn't very busy. He doesn't wander far and doesn't stay out overnight. If he ever went missing for two weeks I would resolve this market as if he died.

Bettors beware, I'm pretty sure he will simply live happily forever. Pretty sure. I won't bet on this market, but Orangey might bet NO (he won't need mana if one of them resolves YES).

Feel free to add more options!

[image][image][image][image][image](https://www.youtube.com/embed/5OcijWbMieU?si=kAZzyuAGhBn_2IC_)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Jordan Peterson, followed by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Apr 10, 2026).