Will Trump nuke Iran before 2028?

Question

Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards:

[image]Any use of nuclear weapons in Iran by the US military while Trump is president will result in this market being resolved as YES. Otherwise NO.

This is a duplicate of an existing market with the deadline moved forwards 1 year: https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-trump-nuke-iran-before-2027

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (9 traders, as of Nov 4, 2026).