Will S&P downgrade the US to AA or lower by 2027?

Question

Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from 'AAA' to 'AA+' in 2011. (en.wikipedia.org) This market resolves to 'Yes' if S&P announces a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to 'AA' or lower before January 1, 2027. Resolution will be based on official statements from S&P.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (13 traders, as of Jan 11, 2026).