US tariffs on Canada delayed again on or before March 4, 2025

Question

This market tracks whether the US will announce another delay in implementing 25% tariffs on most Canadian imports before March 4, 2025.

Resolution Criteria:

Resolves YES if the US government officially announces a delay or suspension of planned tariffs on Canada on or before March 4, 2025

Resolves NO if no delay is announced and tariffs take effect

Notes:

Cancellation counts as a delay

If tariffs are reduced to a small subset of affected goods, or slashed well below 25%, then this counts as cancellation. I will use my judgement to determine if half or more of the originally planned tariffs apply, based on a combination of rates and categories of items. This will be subjective, so I won't bet on this market.

Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Tariff Reduction Threshold:

Threshold Definition: Tariffs reduced on the originally planned goods (excluding energy) to below 12.5% (i.e. less than half of the planned 25%) will be treated as a cancellation and considered as 'well below' the originally planned rate.

Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update: Revised Timing & Suspension Criteria

Timing Correction: The focus is now on whether the tariffs take effect. The previous reference to the March 4 deadline for announcing a delay is no longer used.

Effective Tariffs Resolution: If the tariffs take effect—even if they are later paused or cancelled—the outcome will be resolved as NO.

Suspension Requirement for YES: Only a suspension or delay declared before the tariffs take effect will result in a YES resolution.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Mar 4, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.