Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?

Question

Freddie deBoer's proposed a bet with Scott Alexander, predicting that all of these 17 conditions will be true: I'm Offering Scott Alexander a Wager About AI's Effects Over the Next Three Years.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, The largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap, followed by CPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually and The U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18% are most likely. See the market for live updates (66 traders, as of Mar 23, 2026).