The U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%

Labor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%

No single BLS occupational category will have lost 50% or more of jobs between now and February 14th 2029

U.S. GDP is within -30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)

Nonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period

The S&P 500 is within -60% to +225% of the February 2026 level

CPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually

The Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%

The largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap

“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026

Combined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%

Median wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026

The college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor's degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%

The top 1%’s income share is less than 35%

The top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%

Median household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income

Freddie deBoer's proposed a bet with Scott Alexander, predicting that all of these 17 conditions will be true: 

I'm Offering Scott Alexander a Wager About AI's Effects Over the Next Three Years.