Donald Trump was previously impeached twice during his first term (2017-2021) - first for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and second for incitement of insurrection. Both times he was acquitted by the Senate. Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives, while conviction and removal from office requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate.

The market will resolve based solely on whether impeachment occurs in the House, regardless of the Senate's actions or the outcome of any trial.