Will Donald Trump be impeached at least once during his second term?

Question

Background

Donald Trump was previously impeached twice during his first term (2017-2021) - first for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and second for incitement of insurrection. Both times he was acquitted by the Senate. Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives, while conviction and removal from office requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

The House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment against Donald Trump during his second presidential term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029)

This market will resolve NO if:

No articles of impeachment are passed by the House during Trump's second term

The market will resolve based solely on whether impeachment occurs in the House, regardless of the Senate's actions or the outcome of any trial.

Considerations

The House of Representatives will likely be controlled by Republicans at the start of Trump's second term, making impeachment less likely initially

Historical precedent: Trump is currently the only U.S. president to have been impeached twice

Multiple ongoing criminal cases and investigations against Trump could potentially influence future impeachment considerations

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 70% chance (38 traders, as of Apr 29, 2026).