Will any nation's military budget be used to train an AI system that consistently beats GPT-4's SAT scores by 2026?

Question

GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 test performances for context:

[image]https://medium.com/@koki_noda/unveiling-the-ultimate-language-model-who-reigns-supreme-c6ce9f034ecc

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (10 traders, as of Jul 17, 2025).