Will the responder one-box in this Transparent Newcomb's Paradox?

Question

Newcomb's paradox is a decision theory thought experiment in which there are two boxes; Box 1 is transparent and contains $1,000, and Box 2 contains $1,000,000 iff the reliable predictor predicts that the other participant will take only Box 2.

In our case, our reliable predictor will be Manifold. Box 2 will contain a manalink for Ṁ1000, multiplied by the probability that this market assigns to YES (e.g. at 50% YES, Box 2 contains Ṁ500). Box 1 contains Ṁ100.

I will select a random participant in this market with fewer than 100 shares in this market at close time.

I will offer that participant the choice of only Box 2, or of both Boxes 1 and 2. This market resolves YES if they take only Box 2, and NO otherwise. If the random participant doesn't make their choice within 24 hours, I will randomly select another Manifolder to replace them.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jan 19, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.