Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from?

Question

Resolves at the party that the first prime minister elected after the next general election is from.

Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a hung parliament results in no government being formed and a snap election is called without any government (including a minority government) forming in the meantime, the market will resolve based on the PM after that subsequent election.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Reform, followed by Labour and Conservatives are most likely. See the market for live updates (42 traders, as of Apr 21, 2026).